Real Estate is three things:"
Cyclical
Seasonal
Emotional
That was a comment made to a SeekingAlpha.com article by Tim Iacono titled,'Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?'
Cyclical Cycles run about 15 years in length with the current cycle beginning late 2006. We can track the beginning of this down cycle to the last down cycle in 1990-1991 and we have heard thousands of comments on this. When the cyclical adjustment occurs it is an adjustment to the underlying structural issues in the market. For this real estate cyclical cycle, the structural problem is comprised of two elements:
A. Influx of new home buyers who received mortgages through non-standard financing. That is the emergence of No Asset, No Docs, Interest Only, Mortgages at 125% of Value programs. We all know the affect these had on the market.
B. Excessive over development which created 5 million vacant housing unit not supported by population demand. Expectations of Baby Boomer migration and new homeowner growth fueled this development. The existing oversupply issue will take at least two, if not three more years to be absorbed and new housing starts will remain below 800,000 units in 2010 and 1 million in 2011.
Seasonal Changes occur every year and follow a fairly consistent pattern. The news today and for the next several months is a result of seasonal changes, not necessarily structural ones. The spring and summer selling seasons always show the top values in any market, and the fall and winter show the bottom. This is one of the prime effects of the recent crash; it began in late 2006 and early 2007, but did not pick up speed until late 2008. By that time, the snow ball going down the hill was an avalanche and the population and financial system reacted accordingly: they ran! The actual correction or rebound in housing will not show signs until the beginning of the spring 2010 selling season.
Emotional changes are best described by many of the commentaries. Because we lack so much important data on the real estate markets, such as the sales price per square foot which the rest of the industrialized world uses and because of our own ignorance or arrogance (we all know the answer) our emotions take control. Fear of the unknown is the worst element of any financial market. That is what we've experienced for the past nine months.
What creates fear is the lack of information. In real estate, we always are reporting on the past and trying to guess the future. Utilization of more quantitative data will permit us to evaluate data more accurately and track the markets in an efficient manner.
How many of the commentators and authors have the actual data? How many are relying on other data sources to build their articles? I have the actual sales and inventory data from over 1,000 assessment offices covering the top 100 MSA's; but I must rely on Census, Commerce, Labor for their data and we all know there are issues with the data.
So I finish with this, the Free Market must develop an independent solution to track and predict the real estate market, or we will all be talking about this again in 15 years.
Real Estate is three things:"
Cyclical
Seasonal
Emotional
That was a comment made to a SeekingAlpha.com article by Tim Iacono titled,'Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?'
Cyclical Cycles run about 15 years in length with the current cycle beginning late 2006. We can track the beginning of this down cycle to the last down cycle in 1990-1991 and we have heard thousands of comments on this. When the cyclical adjustment occurs it is an adjustment to the underlying structural issues in the market. For this real estate cyclical cycle, the structural problem is comprised of two elements:
A. Influx of new home buyers who received mortgages through non-standard financing. That is the emergence of No Asset, No Docs, Interest Only, Mortgages at 125% of Value programs. We all know the affect these had on the market.
B. Excessive over development which created 5 million vacant housing unit not supported by population demand. Expectations of Baby Boomer migration and new homeowner growth fueled this development. The existing oversupply issue will take at least two, if not three more years to be absorbed and new housing starts will remain below 800,000 units in 2010 and 1 million in 2011.
Seasonal Changes occur every year and follow a fairly consistent pattern. The news today and for the next several months is a result of seasonal changes, not necessarily structural ones. The spring and summer selling seasons always show the top values in any market, and the fall and winter show the bottom. This is one of the prime effects of the recent crash; it began in late 2006 and early 2007, but did not pick up speed until late 2008. By that time, the snow ball going down the hill was an avalanche and the population and financial system reacted accordingly: they ran! The actual correction or rebound in housing will not show signs until the beginning of the spring 2010 selling season.
Emotional changes are best described by many of the commentaries. Because we lack so much important data on the real estate markets, such as the sales price per square foot which the rest of the industrialized world uses and because of our own ignorance or arrogance (we all know the answer) our emotions take control. Fear of the unknown is the worst element of any financial market. That is what we've experienced for the past nine months.
What creates fear is the lack of information. In real estate, we always are reporting on the past and trying to guess the future. Utilization of more quantitative data will permit us to evaluate data more accurately and track the markets in an efficient manner.
How many of the commentators and authors have the actual data? How many are relying on other data sources to build their articles? I have the actual sales and inventory data from over 1,000 assessment offices covering the top 100 MSA's; but I must rely on Census, Commerce, Labor for their data and we all know there are issues with the data.
So I finish with this, the Free Market must develop an independent solution to track and predict the real estate market, or we will all be talking about this again in 15 years.
Real Estate is three things:"
Cyclical
Seasonal
Emotional
That was a comment made to a SeekingAlpha.com article by Tim Iacono titled,'Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?'
Cyclical Cycles run about 15 years in length with the current cycle beginning late 2006. We can track the beginning of this down cycle to the last down cycle in 1990-1991 and we have heard thousands of comments on this. When the cyclical adjustment occurs it is an adjustment to the underlying structural issues in the market. For this real estate cyclical cycle, the structural problem is comprised of two elements:
A. Influx of new home buyers who received mortgages through non-standard financing. That is the emergence of No Asset, No Docs, Interest Only, Mortgages at 125% of Value programs. We all know the affect these had on the market.
B. Excessive over development which created 5 million vacant housing unit not supported by population demand. Expectations of Baby Boomer migration and new homeowner growth fueled this development. The existing oversupply issue will take at least two, if not three more years to be absorbed and new housing starts will remain below 800,000 units in 2010 and 1 million in 2011.
Seasonal Changes occur every year and follow a fairly consistent pattern. The news today and for the next several months is a result of seasonal changes, not necessarily structural ones. The spring and summer selling seasons always show the top values in any market, and the fall and winter show the bottom. This is one of the prime effects of the recent crash; it began in late 2006 and early 2007, but did not pick up speed until late 2008. By that time, the snow ball going down the hill was an avalanche and the population and financial system reacted accordingly: they ran! The actual correction or rebound in housing will not show signs until the beginning of the spring 2010 selling season.
Emotional changes are best described by many of the commentaries. Because we lack so much important data on the real estate markets, such as the sales price per square foot which the rest of the industrialized world uses and because of our own ignorance or arrogance (we all know the answer) our emotions take control. Fear of the unknown is the worst element of any financial market. That is what we've experienced for the past nine months.
What creates fear is the lack of information. In real estate, we always are reporting on the past and trying to guess the future. Utilization of more quantitative data will permit us to evaluate data more accurately and track the markets in an efficient manner.
How many of the commentators and authors have the actual data? How many are relying on other data sources to build their articles? I have the actual sales and inventory data from over 1,000 assessment offices covering the top 100 MSA's; but I must rely on Census, Commerce, Labor for their data and we all know there are issues with the data.
So I finish with this, the Free Market must develop an independent solution to track and predict the real estate market, or we will all be talking about this again in 15 years.
Rabu, 28 Oktober 2009
Get the Short Sale Help You Need Quickly!
Buying or selling a home on your own can be very difficult. Most people might find the task very long, drawn out and even frustrating. When it comes to a shortsale home, you would think that the process would be a little bit easier. The fact is the home buying and selling process is not very simple at all. If you have run into a little bit of a snag along the way, there is some great short sale help that you can get. Take a look at all of these resources to help get you into a brand new living situation!
The internet can be looked at as one of the best sources for information. Millions of people are always logged on and browsing around. If you need some information on a short sale, this is going to be a very good resource to tap.
When you are online, most of the time you will just need to do a search. From there, you can be directed to a wide variety of help for a short sale home. You should even be directed to a couple of specialists that will be able to help you.
A realtor is going to know everything there is not know about the real estate market. When it comes to a short sale, you are going to need a person that specializes in this process. This is where you are going to be able to get all of the information that you need about short sales.
A specialist will be able to give you the true inside look to the shortsale market. In fact a majority of homes that you will come across will be a short sale. This is simply because people are looking to get out from under their mortgage. A lot of the times the home will already be in the foreclosure process.
Sit down and make a list of questions and concerns that you have for a shortsale home. From there, you can talk to a specialist and figure out what you need to do. If you need lending, then you should get with a lender. A realtor that specializes in short sales should know where to send you for money. There are specific lenders out there that deal with just short sale homes. This is the type of short sale help that you will definitely need.
Make sure that you have everything that you need before you get started. If you are not sure about the entire process, then get some help along the way. There are plenty of websites that will be able to point you in the right direction.
It is not impossible to purchase a great short sale home. As long as you have the proper short sale help and tools you should be all set to go. Get online today and start looking for the right specialist to help you out. Remember, the more help that you have at your fingertips, the easier the process is going to be all around.
Super online guide to get the Short Sale Help you need chop-chop, now available with the click of a button on http://www.nphsrealestate.org
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Randolph_Rempe
The internet can be looked at as one of the best sources for information. Millions of people are always logged on and browsing around. If you need some information on a short sale, this is going to be a very good resource to tap.
When you are online, most of the time you will just need to do a search. From there, you can be directed to a wide variety of help for a short sale home. You should even be directed to a couple of specialists that will be able to help you.
A realtor is going to know everything there is not know about the real estate market. When it comes to a short sale, you are going to need a person that specializes in this process. This is where you are going to be able to get all of the information that you need about short sales.
A specialist will be able to give you the true inside look to the shortsale market. In fact a majority of homes that you will come across will be a short sale. This is simply because people are looking to get out from under their mortgage. A lot of the times the home will already be in the foreclosure process.
Sit down and make a list of questions and concerns that you have for a shortsale home. From there, you can talk to a specialist and figure out what you need to do. If you need lending, then you should get with a lender. A realtor that specializes in short sales should know where to send you for money. There are specific lenders out there that deal with just short sale homes. This is the type of short sale help that you will definitely need.
Make sure that you have everything that you need before you get started. If you are not sure about the entire process, then get some help along the way. There are plenty of websites that will be able to point you in the right direction.
It is not impossible to purchase a great short sale home. As long as you have the proper short sale help and tools you should be all set to go. Get online today and start looking for the right specialist to help you out. Remember, the more help that you have at your fingertips, the easier the process is going to be all around.
Super online guide to get the Short Sale Help you need chop-chop, now available with the click of a button on http://www.nphsrealestate.org
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Randolph_Rempe
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