Rabu, 28 Oktober 2009

Cyclical, Seasonal, Or Emotional - Where is the Market Now?

Real Estate is three things:"
Cyclical
Seasonal
Emotional

That was a comment made to a SeekingAlpha.com article by Tim Iacono titled,'Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?'

Cyclical Cycles run about 15 years in length with the current cycle beginning late 2006. We can track the beginning of this down cycle to the last down cycle in 1990-1991 and we have heard thousands of comments on this. When the cyclical adjustment occurs it is an adjustment to the underlying structural issues in the market. For this real estate cyclical cycle, the structural problem is comprised of two elements:

A. Influx of new home buyers who received mortgages through non-standard financing. That is the emergence of No Asset, No Docs, Interest Only, Mortgages at 125% of Value programs. We all know the affect these had on the market.

B. Excessive over development which created 5 million vacant housing unit not supported by population demand. Expectations of Baby Boomer migration and new homeowner growth fueled this development. The existing oversupply issue will take at least two, if not three more years to be absorbed and new housing starts will remain below 800,000 units in 2010 and 1 million in 2011.

Seasonal Changes occur every year and follow a fairly consistent pattern. The news today and for the next several months is a result of seasonal changes, not necessarily structural ones. The spring and summer selling seasons always show the top values in any market, and the fall and winter show the bottom. This is one of the prime effects of the recent crash; it began in late 2006 and early 2007, but did not pick up speed until late 2008. By that time, the snow ball going down the hill was an avalanche and the population and financial system reacted accordingly: they ran! The actual correction or rebound in housing will not show signs until the beginning of the spring 2010 selling season.

Emotional changes are best described by many of the commentaries. Because we lack so much important data on the real estate markets, such as the sales price per square foot which the rest of the industrialized world uses and because of our own ignorance or arrogance (we all know the answer) our emotions take control. Fear of the unknown is the worst element of any financial market. That is what we've experienced for the past nine months.

What creates fear is the lack of information. In real estate, we always are reporting on the past and trying to guess the future. Utilization of more quantitative data will permit us to evaluate data more accurately and track the markets in an efficient manner.

How many of the commentators and authors have the actual data? How many are relying on other data sources to build their articles? I have the actual sales and inventory data from over 1,000 assessment offices covering the top 100 MSA's; but I must rely on Census, Commerce, Labor for their data and we all know there are issues with the data.
So I finish with this, the Free Market must develop an independent solution to track and predict the real estate market, or we will all be talking about this again in 15 years.

Real Estate is three things:"
Cyclical
Seasonal
Emotional

That was a comment made to a SeekingAlpha.com article by Tim Iacono titled,'Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?'

Cyclical Cycles run about 15 years in length with the current cycle beginning late 2006. We can track the beginning of this down cycle to the last down cycle in 1990-1991 and we have heard thousands of comments on this. When the cyclical adjustment occurs it is an adjustment to the underlying structural issues in the market. For this real estate cyclical cycle, the structural problem is comprised of two elements:

A. Influx of new home buyers who received mortgages through non-standard financing. That is the emergence of No Asset, No Docs, Interest Only, Mortgages at 125% of Value programs. We all know the affect these had on the market.

B. Excessive over development which created 5 million vacant housing unit not supported by population demand. Expectations of Baby Boomer migration and new homeowner growth fueled this development. The existing oversupply issue will take at least two, if not three more years to be absorbed and new housing starts will remain below 800,000 units in 2010 and 1 million in 2011.

Seasonal Changes occur every year and follow a fairly consistent pattern. The news today and for the next several months is a result of seasonal changes, not necessarily structural ones. The spring and summer selling seasons always show the top values in any market, and the fall and winter show the bottom. This is one of the prime effects of the recent crash; it began in late 2006 and early 2007, but did not pick up speed until late 2008. By that time, the snow ball going down the hill was an avalanche and the population and financial system reacted accordingly: they ran! The actual correction or rebound in housing will not show signs until the beginning of the spring 2010 selling season.

Emotional changes are best described by many of the commentaries. Because we lack so much important data on the real estate markets, such as the sales price per square foot which the rest of the industrialized world uses and because of our own ignorance or arrogance (we all know the answer) our emotions take control. Fear of the unknown is the worst element of any financial market. That is what we've experienced for the past nine months.

What creates fear is the lack of information. In real estate, we always are reporting on the past and trying to guess the future. Utilization of more quantitative data will permit us to evaluate data more accurately and track the markets in an efficient manner.

How many of the commentators and authors have the actual data? How many are relying on other data sources to build their articles? I have the actual sales and inventory data from over 1,000 assessment offices covering the top 100 MSA's; but I must rely on Census, Commerce, Labor for their data and we all know there are issues with the data.
So I finish with this, the Free Market must develop an independent solution to track and predict the real estate market, or we will all be talking about this again in 15 years.

Real Estate is three things:"
Cyclical
Seasonal
Emotional

That was a comment made to a SeekingAlpha.com article by Tim Iacono titled,'Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?'

Cyclical Cycles run about 15 years in length with the current cycle beginning late 2006. We can track the beginning of this down cycle to the last down cycle in 1990-1991 and we have heard thousands of comments on this. When the cyclical adjustment occurs it is an adjustment to the underlying structural issues in the market. For this real estate cyclical cycle, the structural problem is comprised of two elements:

A. Influx of new home buyers who received mortgages through non-standard financing. That is the emergence of No Asset, No Docs, Interest Only, Mortgages at 125% of Value programs. We all know the affect these had on the market.

B. Excessive over development which created 5 million vacant housing unit not supported by population demand. Expectations of Baby Boomer migration and new homeowner growth fueled this development. The existing oversupply issue will take at least two, if not three more years to be absorbed and new housing starts will remain below 800,000 units in 2010 and 1 million in 2011.

Seasonal Changes occur every year and follow a fairly consistent pattern. The news today and for the next several months is a result of seasonal changes, not necessarily structural ones. The spring and summer selling seasons always show the top values in any market, and the fall and winter show the bottom. This is one of the prime effects of the recent crash; it began in late 2006 and early 2007, but did not pick up speed until late 2008. By that time, the snow ball going down the hill was an avalanche and the population and financial system reacted accordingly: they ran! The actual correction or rebound in housing will not show signs until the beginning of the spring 2010 selling season.

Emotional changes are best described by many of the commentaries. Because we lack so much important data on the real estate markets, such as the sales price per square foot which the rest of the industrialized world uses and because of our own ignorance or arrogance (we all know the answer) our emotions take control. Fear of the unknown is the worst element of any financial market. That is what we've experienced for the past nine months.

What creates fear is the lack of information. In real estate, we always are reporting on the past and trying to guess the future. Utilization of more quantitative data will permit us to evaluate data more accurately and track the markets in an efficient manner.

How many of the commentators and authors have the actual data? How many are relying on other data sources to build their articles? I have the actual sales and inventory data from over 1,000 assessment offices covering the top 100 MSA's; but I must rely on Census, Commerce, Labor for their data and we all know there are issues with the data.
So I finish with this, the Free Market must develop an independent solution to track and predict the real estate market, or we will all be talking about this again in 15 years.

Get the Short Sale Help You Need Quickly!

Buying or selling a home on your own can be very difficult. Most people might find the task very long, drawn out and even frustrating. When it comes to a shortsale home, you would think that the process would be a little bit easier. The fact is the home buying and selling process is not very simple at all. If you have run into a little bit of a snag along the way, there is some great short sale help that you can get. Take a look at all of these resources to help get you into a brand new living situation!

The internet can be looked at as one of the best sources for information. Millions of people are always logged on and browsing around. If you need some information on a short sale, this is going to be a very good resource to tap.

When you are online, most of the time you will just need to do a search. From there, you can be directed to a wide variety of help for a short sale home. You should even be directed to a couple of specialists that will be able to help you.

A realtor is going to know everything there is not know about the real estate market. When it comes to a short sale, you are going to need a person that specializes in this process. This is where you are going to be able to get all of the information that you need about short sales.

A specialist will be able to give you the true inside look to the shortsale market. In fact a majority of homes that you will come across will be a short sale. This is simply because people are looking to get out from under their mortgage. A lot of the times the home will already be in the foreclosure process.

Sit down and make a list of questions and concerns that you have for a shortsale home. From there, you can talk to a specialist and figure out what you need to do. If you need lending, then you should get with a lender. A realtor that specializes in short sales should know where to send you for money. There are specific lenders out there that deal with just short sale homes. This is the type of short sale help that you will definitely need.

Make sure that you have everything that you need before you get started. If you are not sure about the entire process, then get some help along the way. There are plenty of websites that will be able to point you in the right direction.

It is not impossible to purchase a great short sale home. As long as you have the proper short sale help and tools you should be all set to go. Get online today and start looking for the right specialist to help you out. Remember, the more help that you have at your fingertips, the easier the process is going to be all around.

Super online guide to get the Short Sale Help you need chop-chop, now available with the click of a button on http://www.nphsrealestate.org

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Randolph_Rempe

Selasa, 27 Oktober 2009

Factors Affecting House Values

Although different censuses collate information on the rateable value of houses they do not reflect the market price that might be achieved. House values as far as most buyers are concerned refer to how much you would have to pay for a particular property. There are several factors affecting the value of a house, the most important one being its location. This isn't surprising as we all have certain places where we would like to live for very valid reasons.

If you are employed you might want to reduce your commute time by living close to your place of employment or have good public transport links or quick road routes to get to work. Few people like to spend more than an hour to get to work if at all possible and ideally would like their travel time to be less than that. Being close to family members may be another consideration if you have strong links to the community where you grew up and wish to continue with them. Insurance risks like flooding can affect the value of a house even in a desirable location that otherwise hits all the hot buttons. Increasingly in the UK being close to certain schools, having the right postcode, can be a very important element in deciding where to by your house and the value it has placed upon it. In London, SE3 and SE9 postcodes back on to each other at Rochester Way between Kidbrooke Park Road and Broad Walk. The SE3 postcode on one side of the junction is regarded as the salubrious Blackheath, while the SE9 postcode is essentially Eltham, which doesn't carry the same cache or the same house prices as its neighbouring postcode.

After location and all the considerations that make it such an important factor, houses in the same location may differ in price because of size and even this can be affected by aspect. A house fronting a busy road may not be as appealing as another further back though a quiet corner property might be very attractive and of greater value. Ends of terraces tend to be of greater value than mid-terrace properties because they are not completely enclosed and semi-detached residences [despite being packed so close together one might think they are part of a terrace] attract higher values, although properties that form 'mansion blocks' with apartments on different levels in a terrace are usually located in such pricey parts of town they defy the regular terrace values.

Comparing a house in the same location and of the same size and similar aspect, things like gardens and landscaping can affect value as can the availability of en-suite bathrooms in a property. The condition of a residence, its décor, conversions, extensions, retained original features and whether it is a 'listed' building with restrictions and obligations can also affect the value of a house. Whether there is off street parking [a factor affecting vehicle insurance] is available or a garage at the property can also affect the value of a house and the overall 'feel' of the neighbourhood can be very influential on relative values put side by side to comparable properties in similar locations.

Steven Mcdouglass is an employee of Which Network - A Mortgage Network consultancy company.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Steven_Mcdouglass

Although different censuses collate information on the rateable value of houses they do not reflect the market price that might be achieved. House values as far as most buyers are concerned refer to how much you would have to pay for a particular property. There are several factors affecting the value of a house, the most important one being its location. This isn't surprising as we all have certain places where we would like to live for very valid reasons.

If you are employed you might want to reduce your commute time by living close to your place of employment or have good public transport links or quick road routes to get to work. Few people like to spend more than an hour to get to work if at all possible and ideally would like their travel time to be less than that. Being close to family members may be another consideration if you have strong links to the community where you grew up and wish to continue with them. Insurance risks like flooding can affect the value of a house even in a desirable location that otherwise hits all the hot buttons. Increasingly in the UK being close to certain schools, having the right postcode, can be a very important element in deciding where to by your house and the value it has placed upon it. In London, SE3 and SE9 postcodes back on to each other at Rochester Way between Kidbrooke Park Road and Broad Walk. The SE3 postcode on one side of the junction is regarded as the salubrious Blackheath, while the SE9 postcode is essentially Eltham, which doesn't carry the same cache or the same house prices as its neighbouring postcode.

After location and all the considerations that make it such an important factor, houses in the same location may differ in price because of size and even this can be affected by aspect. A house fronting a busy road may not be as appealing as another further back though a quiet corner property might be very attractive and of greater value. Ends of terraces tend to be of greater value than mid-terrace properties because they are not completely enclosed and semi-detached residences [despite being packed so close together one might think they are part of a terrace] attract higher values, although properties that form 'mansion blocks' with apartments on different levels in a terrace are usually located in such pricey parts of town they defy the regular terrace values.

Comparing a house in the same location and of the same size and similar aspect, things like gardens and landscaping can affect value as can the availability of en-suite bathrooms in a property. The condition of a residence, its décor, conversions, extensions, retained original features and whether it is a 'listed' building with restrictions and obligations can also affect the value of a house. Whether there is off street parking [a factor affecting vehicle insurance] is available or a garage at the property can also affect the value of a house and the overall 'feel' of the neighbourhood can be very influential on relative values put side by side to comparable properties in similar locations.

Steven Mcdouglass is an employee of Which Network - A Mortgage Network consultancy company.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Steven_Mcdouglass

Although different censuses collate information on the rateable value of houses they do not reflect the market price that might be achieved. House values as far as most buyers are concerned refer to how much you would have to pay for a particular property. There are several factors affecting the value of a house, the most important one being its location. This isn't surprising as we all have certain places where we would like to live for very valid reasons.

If you are employed you might want to reduce your commute time by living close to your place of employment or have good public transport links or quick road routes to get to work. Few people like to spend more than an hour to get to work if at all possible and ideally would like their travel time to be less than that. Being close to family members may be another consideration if you have strong links to the community where you grew up and wish to continue with them. Insurance risks like flooding can affect the value of a house even in a desirable location that otherwise hits all the hot buttons. Increasingly in the UK being close to certain schools, having the right postcode, can be a very important element in deciding where to by your house and the value it has placed upon it. In London, SE3 and SE9 postcodes back on to each other at Rochester Way between Kidbrooke Park Road and Broad Walk. The SE3 postcode on one side of the junction is regarded as the salubrious Blackheath, while the SE9 postcode is essentially Eltham, which doesn't carry the same cache or the same house prices as its neighbouring postcode.

After location and all the considerations that make it such an important factor, houses in the same location may differ in price because of size and even this can be affected by aspect. A house fronting a busy road may not be as appealing as another further back though a quiet corner property might be very attractive and of greater value. Ends of terraces tend to be of greater value than mid-terrace properties because they are not completely enclosed and semi-detached residences [despite being packed so close together one might think they are part of a terrace] attract higher values, although properties that form 'mansion blocks' with apartments on different levels in a terrace are usually located in such pricey parts of town they defy the regular terrace values.

Comparing a house in the same location and of the same size and similar aspect, things like gardens and landscaping can affect value as can the availability of en-suite bathrooms in a property. The condition of a residence, its décor, conversions, extensions, retained original features and whether it is a 'listed' building with restrictions and obligations can also affect the value of a house. Whether there is off street parking [a factor affecting vehicle insurance] is available or a garage at the property can also affect the value of a house and the overall 'feel' of the neighbourhood can be very influential on relative values put side by side to comparable properties in similar locations.

Steven Mcdouglass is an employee of Which Network - A Mortgage Network consultancy company.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Steven_Mcdouglass

Minggu, 25 Oktober 2009

House Values in the UK

The year 2007 seems so very long ago now. It was when the housing market in the UK had hit its peak and before the credit crunch imposed by the global recession took hold. Back then prices could rise week on week and if you weren't quick you could miss out on a price you could afford. The latest information from the Halifax housing price index shows that there has been another slight improvement in July. Although it reports a modest 0.8% rise in house prices in the UK it has to be welcome news - it's the first quarterly rise since October 2007. Perhaps it is a sign that we have weathered the worst of the financial storm, though the figure is so small it might only be a seasonal blip coupled with the low interest rates that still prevail that currently make house buying attractive for those with capital and employment. If the next set of quarterly results also shows a rise then maybe there is reason to hope that the trend is moving upwards.

The average house price in the UK [August 2009] is £159,623, still down on the same period last year by 12.1% though it has crept up by small increments for both June and July [£156,442 and £158,871 respectively], which has given the overall quarterly results the positive figure. Observers have commented that the uptake in housing has been due to those buyers in 2008 who were intending to make a purchase but holding off realising that whilst the banking crisis was uppermost in people's minds. It is not expected to be sustained, as an increase in prices would put house prices out of sync with household earnings, as incomes have been cut for many and unemployment an unfortunately realistic prospect for many more potential buyers.

Since Margaret Thatcher's Housing Act 1980, Right To Buy, house ownership in the UK has been perceived by many indeed as a right and in the twenty-nine years that has passed many have become used to the idea of property purchase as an investment and an alternative to a pension plan. With house prices having seemed so solid families have been able to leave their children considerable inheritances unseen in the past. These inheritances have allowed the younger beneficiaries to afford deposits or even buy outright the house of their dreams in the knowledge they too can probably make a profit when they downsize or even amass enough capital to be able to upgrade their residence. However, with house prices' falling the bubble has burst for this particular dream as the spectre of negative equity faces many who bought properties beyond their reach and still face the repayments on them though their saleable value has decreased. Harsh reality is replacing the expectations of annual foreign holidays even with cheap flight airlines, dining out regularly and entertainment outside the home.

The rental market could provide solutions for accommodation and still impact positively on house prices as property owners develop their portfolios for rent rather than sales as long as they are not greedy and can make long term investments.

Steven Mcdouglass is an employee of Which Network - A Mortgage Network consultancy company.

Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/?expert=Steven_Mcdouglass
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